Serendipity is not a business model

The Xpragmatic View #142
25 april 2010
door Marc Buyens (@mbuyens), Xpragma
marc.buyens@xpragma.be
url: http://www.xpragma.be/view142.php
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Enterprise social networks reach their full potential when there is broad acceptance, because then, the potential for unexpected ideas or making new discoveries is highest. However, in order to reach broad acceptance, there must also be basic value.

April 22, Andrew McAfee published a new post on his blog: Drop The Pilot. In this post, he makes the observation that too many Enterprise 2.0 pilots simply don't take off. They seem to be unable to create the critical mass of interaction that is needed to make the implemented solution really worthwhile using. So he comes to the conclusion that the real problem with these pilots is that they are too small. Because they are only a pilot, and therefore limited in scale and scope, they are unable to generate this critical mass of interaction that is needed to get to the real potential of Enterprise 2.0.

As McAfee writes:

The more I learn about and think about the value of emergent social software platforms, the more I suspect that the deep meta-benefit they provide is technology-enabled serendipity, defined as 'good luck in making unexpected and fortunate discoveries.' Serendipity is possible when we're collaborating with our close colleagues on a well-defined project, but that's probably when it occurs least often. It's much more likely during wide forays and broad searches, the kind that are so easy to do with current technologies.

Well, we do not really disagree and McAfee is not the first one to make this observation. August 2009, Michael Idinopulos came to similar conclusions in his blog post Enterprise 2.0: Skip the Pilot.

We agree. Solutions such as enterprise social networks do need a certain critical mass to be able to deliver on their promises. At least, they must enable participants to reach beyond the boundaries of their own team, department, division or local office, because only then, the potential to "make unexpected and fortunate discoveries" exists.

However, serendipity only cannot be an objective. As the "good luck in making unexpected and fortunate discoveries" description suggests, this is not a guaranteed deliverable. You might get it, but most often, you don't.

During our own use of social tools, we were lucky enough of having a few of these unexpected and fortunate moments. They didn't make us rich, but they enriched our life.

However, what was the investment in time and effort to get to these moments? How many hours, days, months were we using these tools before getting the "aha" moment?

Getting the buy-in of participants and keeping them engaged sufficiently long enough to get to this "tipping point" requires that the solution adds sufficient value for the down to earth, day to day basic tasks. Delivering immediate value "in the flow".

Without that value, people get frustrated, demotivated, they lose interest. Deliver value in the flow and they might stick with you long enough to experience the "unexpected and fortunate discoveries". But do not make serendipity a business model.

The first time we heard the expression 'serendipity' was probably in 1995 when we still worked for Tandem Computers. It was Roel Pieper, our new CEO, who used it in one of his speeches. According to Pieper, these were exciting times for our company since, accidentally, our strategy became aligned with Microsoft's plans. Microsoft was trying to extend its reach into the high-end enterprise server market, but lacked our expertise in fault-tolerant and high-availability software. The perfect team was born.

Well, either that serendipity thing did not really work or, more likely, the basic value proposition was not really there...

Two years later, Tandem was acquired by Compaq.

Serendipity is an interesting concept, but you cannot build a business on it. Whatever we might think, serendipity does not come accidentally. It builds on solid ground. Without that solid ground, it is simply called a lottery.

Over Marc Buyens

Marc Buyens is analyst, management consultant en zaakvoerder van Xpragma. Hij startte Xpragma in 1999 na een meer dan 20-jarige loopbaan in de IT-sector. Vandaag levert hij advies, training en mentoring diensten die zich richten op de intersectie van technologische vernieuwing, organisatorische verandering en bedrijfsstrategie: een troebele poel van niet ingeloste beloften.

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